Mahahual Hurricane Earl Update

Here is the latest update on Hurricane Earl, which is headed this way towards Mahahual and Belize.  I have been getting hurricane updates from a blog reader, Steve, and he must have some insider track on the weather.  He has been sending me updates for the last couple of days.  Here is today’s latest map and information concerning Hurricane Earl.  (I think the name “Hurricane Earl” is funny.  It reminds of that TV show about the loser guy named Earl, and also the Dixie Chicks song about killing the Earl guy.)

Path of hurricane as of this morning, Tuesday 8/2/2016.

Path of hurricane as of this morning, Tuesday 8/2/2016.

“Good Morning: Hurricane hunter aircraft are flying in to the storm at the present time. If they find a low level circulation, the storm will become Tropical Storm Earl today. The good news is, the system is being downgraded from probable hurricane to when the storm comes ashore to possible and not very likely. However winds will be gusty and in the 60mph range and the forecast for landfall is still Northern Belize. Attached track map for your perusal. Mahahual should be having one hell of a hurricane party tomorrow night, I wish Lisa and I were there especially for the lobstering after the storm passes.

Be safe and vigilant, I will continue to update you today and tomorrow. The Western Caribbean waters are very warm so anything is possible with this storm or possible future storms.”

Steve, (I will not give his last name for privacy purposes), also sent me this about his background in the weather business, so I tend to listen to him and his information),

“Because my background is deepwater construction in the oil and gas industry, I have access to a special weather forecasting system the oil companies use in the Gulf of Mexico. The accuracy of predicting storm landfalls, times and dates is amazing. I will keep you updated on Tropical Depression 18 as it moves in to the Caribbean along with Evan. Right now, landfall is predicted close to Mahahual at 21:00 on Wednesday. As new alerts come out, I will keep you posted.”

So it looks no major hurricane headed to Mahahual at the moment, but things could change.  A lot of people yesterday were talking about heading to the hills today, and getting out-of-town.  Most of these were American tourists and expats though.  Most Mexicans I talked to yesterday did not even know a hurricane was predicted.  They just kind of shrugged their shoulders and said, “Uh”.  Most of them, like me, don’t get excited until it the hurricane actually shows up.

I remember one time in South Carolina, a hurricane was predicted to head towards Myrtle Beach, South Carolina during Labor Day weekend.  They evacuated the whole town, and the hurricane missed by 50 miles, and the community lost millions of dollars.

So yesterday when everybody was running around talking about taping up their windows and boarding up everything, I just took it with a grain of salt.  I have been though eight hurricanes, so they don’t excite me too much.  But, also I have not lost everything to a hurricane, like happened here to a lot of people during Hurricane Dean in 2007, so I can understand their caution and attitude.

I remember one time when I was living in Belize, a hurricane came though.  I was in a palapa building maybe 100 foot long, and the hurricane picked up the roof (I thought I was surely a goner, and was going to be blown away), but the hurricane dropped the roof right back down in place on top of the building, I guess it was intended to do that,

So it looks like now all we are going to have in Mahahual is a lot of wind and rain Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.  Some people have left to higher ground, but I will be here in Mahahual to weather through this storm, and wait on the next one.  Trust me, I got a feeling this is going to be a long and active hurricane season this year.  All the omens point that way.

Thanks for reading,

Stewart Rogers USA-South Carolina

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